Let them eat lentils

A lot of South Africans are in a stew over anticipated hikes in the price of meat, amid warnings that red meat prices could as much as double later this year. Seeing headlines like “Meat crisis on the rise in South Africa” and “High red meat prices could mean a crash in the market”, I can’t help feeling gleeful.

The higher the price of meat, the less of it South Africans will be able to afford, which should mean fewer animals being raised in captivity and slaughtered.

Whatever it takes to get people to eat less meat, and better yet stop eating it all together, I’m all for it.

I can hear the consumer bodies and economists tut-tutting about lack of sympathy for consumers, especially poor consumers. After all, it’s the poor who suffer most when prices rise – and where will the poor get their protein if red meat prices rocket?

This is the subtext of many of the meat price pieces I’ve been reading, such as the one in Independent Online on 5 May. It quoted FNB economist Paul Makube as saying that high red meat prices could prompt consumers to switch from red meat to “alternative protein sources” such as pork and chicken.

But then the prices of pork and chicken might also rise as a result, he added (ostensibly putting even more pressure on protein sources for the poor).

Talk about false economy.

I was shocked (but not surprised) to learn that South Africa uses 4,5 million tons of maize a year for animal feed, almost as much as for human consumption.

Maize is a basic input for the production of red meat, chicken, pork, eggs and milk. It’s not a particularly productive input, either: the estimates are that 1kg of maize produces one litre of milk and 7kg of maize produces 1kg of red meat.

And the price of maize is shooting through the roof because of the ongoing drought in maize-producing parts of the country.

Where maize for animal feed used to cost between R1 800 and R2 000 a ton, it now costs R3 000. It could even reach R5 000 a ton this winter, the African Farmers Association said in a Business Day Live article.

Nobody seems to bat an eyelid over the vast amounts of maize (not to mention water, fuel, etc) that go into animal agriculture. Nobody seems to think it odd that all this food is being fed to “food” animals for human consumption, at enormous cost.

I have little sympathy for the Red Meat Producers’ Organisation, South African Poultry Association and the South African Pork Producers’ Association, which all trooped off to Parliament earlier this year to report on the impact of the drought on the meat industry.

They complained bitterly that South Africa was still exporting maize, which was worsening the maize shortage and pushing up maize prices.

The SA Poultry Association reportedly said domestic users of maize in all agricultural sectors would pay R22 billion more this year because of the higher prices. (I found this claim especially interesting as the poultry industry is the single biggest maize user in the sector).

The Pork Producers’ Association reportedly told parliament that the pork industry faced a 70% year-on-year hike in the feed price this year. Shame.

No doubt parliament is very worried about the situation, especially as the Pork Producers’ Association rang that most effective of alarm bells – that jobs could be lost and small-scale farmers would be hardest hit if something isn’t done.

Disappointingly, it seems that the price of meat has not yet risen to the levels forecast. Actually, the Red Meat Producers Organisation (RPO) says on its website that the price of beef and lamb is currently almost 10% lower than this time last year. The reasons it gives are that supply is outstripping demand and that meat is being imported from neighbouring countries.

I find this terribly sad because it means more animals are being killed. In fact the RPO told parliament when it was there in February that there had been a 28% increase in cattle slaughters in November and December 2015 because of the drought.

But the chickens will eventually come home to roost, and when they do, my advice to meat and dairy consumers will be: Why not eat lentils?

Ends

Next: Where will the poor get their protein?